Posted by
1 American Patriot on Thursday, August 07, 2008 12:00:00 PM
Who is really ahead in the polls? Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls show Obama ahead by about 1% to 2%.
But might McCain really be ahead? History shows that voters are sometimes reluctant to tell pollsters the truth, especially if they are going against what is popular in the press. Have voters been lying to pollsters?
Obama is the candidate of the media. Rasmussen polls show large margins of American voters believe the press is biased in favor of Obama.
In the New Hampshire primary Hillary Clinton did much better on election day than polls showed just days before. Similar issues with polling appeared in Ohio and in other locations.
If the day before the election, McCain is behind in polling by the same 1% or 2%, I'd say it is better than even money that McCain wins.
In state polling, the states that are toss ups are those with lots of white working class voters who don't trust Obama's values. They don't like being told they "cling to their religion and guns" by Obama. They don't like hearing that Obama's minister for twenty years, "Damned America" and blamed the U.S. government for creating AIDs to kill black people. Its hard to say that to pollsters, without being called a racist.
If the election is within 1% or 2% in national polls or within states in the south or northern industrial belt, I'd guess McCain is ahead in those locations.
It will be interesting to see, how pollsters adjust for this phenomena as we get closer to the election.